2015 Plans / Thoughts on Amaya
Ugh had a big post written up and apparently lost it last night. Hopefully find motivation to rewrite whole thing if I spread it throughout the day while mixing some mtts.
2015 Plans / FU Amaya
With the recent developments on PS.com and the direction the company seems to be heading, I personally am pretty over stars. Being a SNE I have to continue putting volume on there; I'd actually be doing PS a favor if I lost SNE and continued playing some there, and I'm not ready to just play MTTs/cash on all sites besides PS quite yet as there is still some good value to be had in 2015 for current SNE's (who knows for 2016 though).
What I can do however, is to get exactly 1 million VPPs, play 100% non hyper turbo games (if possible, I'm hoping to not have to mix in very many 6m cash hypers and will only do so if I 100% need to in order to finish SNE) and attempt to win more money pre rb in sngs than the $ amount PS will make off of me in rake post SNE value. And yes, that is precisely my goal, make these ****s lose money off of me personally; I wish I could do more like go play another site but other than punting my expectation to go learn cash, this is the best I can do. On the same wavelength, I will be very choosy with which MTTs I will and won't play on Stars in 2015, which I will get more into below.
Soooo, lets look at some numbers. According to FPPPro, SNE is worth this much this year as someone starting as a SNE and getting exactly 1million VPPs and who cashes in all fpps for $1600 bonuses. This does not take into account random deposit bonuses and other forms of RB.
So all we lose next year is the $5200 WCOOP ticket, so SNE is worth $124,399.55 or 68.42% RB (124399.55 $ rb amount/181818.18181 $ rake requirement to get SNE), which means that PS will make $57,418.63 off of me if I broke stone even pre RB and got exactly 1mil vpps. So the goal is to make $57,418.63+ pre rb next yr, that is going to be a really tough goal to reach but I am hoping my motivation/OI level of PS will lead me to play insanely long hours of turbos at a lower abi just to try to increase my chances of hitting this goal.
So moving on to MTTs/related games, I have never supported the turbo fo mtt satellites due to the absurd rake they charge. They charge the same $20 rake on a $300 + 20 turbo mtt satellite to a COOP $2100 (with the ****ty 180 structure that is even worse due to the fact that people are stalling etc so you see even less hands) as they do the Wed $300 + 20 100k which has a very nice structure. The only turbo fo satellites I've played this yr afaik have been deadline satellites to COOP events which now have better structures with earlier antes. I am fine with playing those, but I will not support the ridiculous turbo fo rake otherwise. This will obviously continue in 2015 and you will 100% not see me in anything other than deadline satellites.
Another thing that I have recently started doing is cutting some of the early non red midstake reg speed fo's on PS. This will also continue in 2015 and I hope to not ever play tournaments like the early $55 7.5k and $55 10k ko. If I feel the need to play a few extra non red birds during AM hours my time, I load/will load...
Yea Party sucks and their 3% charge on skrill cashouts is ridic but I very rarely withdraw on there (depo very small amounts and just run it up/bust), and when it comes down to it, at this point I'd rather try to help grow Party tournaments over supporting the Amaya group.
This same thought process will carry over to peak turbos in 2015; I don't plan to play any (there really aren't any peak reg speed fo's other than the 55 10k that I play on PS during peak time anyway). I am still regging them right now mon-sat quite often because I still need vpps and I am +ev in the fields, but in 2015 I will no longer play a whole slew of peak tournaments including the 55 turbo ko, the 55 re-entry turbo, the 109 re-entry turbo, the 215 24k turbo, the 109^3 20k turbo and the big afternoon 109 turbo 30k. I will also no longer play any 27 tko's, 22 psko's, ANY hyper mtt (at all on the sched, not just peak) etc. Essentially will just be playing bigs/hots and then rebuy tournaments (since the % rake is so small compared to % that goes to prizepool...for now until they start raking rebuys on everyone) during any non dead of offpeak time. I will still fire the late night turbo schedule just because of the lack of offerings on not only all the other sites but stars as well; got to have some MTTs running to get my fix in ;).
But yea, I'm just really over supporting this site's outlandish rake (especially the 'sneaky' ways they do it like with the KO and PSKO tournaments) on many of their offerings and once again, will just add in Euros when I want to mix in more peak MTTs with a certain session. Here are MTTs I've added into my schedule on Euros, OI describing when tournaments start in relation to stars MTTs so just note 11:00 AM my time is Big 11 and 15:30 my time is the Hot 44 and I consider those to be the prime peak hours.
Am I hurting my short term expectation talking about all of these tournaments and pushing people to start playing them? Yea definitely, but I'd much rather hurt my short term expectation and hopefully have a better overall online poker economy a few years down the road instead of the current monopoly PS has outside of the US market. So yea people, start regging non PS sites and quit p)laying all the ****ing timbey, overraked, turbo BS on stars!
Okay had a couple other things I wanted to talk about, but after losing the essay I wrote last night, I'm really struggling to write atm. I guess I'll just make one more point that is quite important to me; anybody who is not a SNE/getting SNE in 2014, DO NOT go for SNE in 2015. In all likelihood, the value in SNE will continue to be cut, possibly drastically in 2016. SNE is a multi year plan, and if you haven't broken into hypers yet, SNE is a huge time commitment and with the ever decreasing edges in online SNGs, I just don't see it being the optimal investment. Maybe I'm wrong, this is only my opinion ofc, but I just don't think I am.
I'm not trying to drive regs away from my games, ffs I just listed off a bunch of great MTTs that hardly any regs flick in on a daily basis because they're too busy regging a 75% reg $55 turbo KO; I'm solely concerned with bringing PS somewhat back in line with the rest of online poker market because they have shown they WILL run us as a group of regs straight into the ground if they are given the opportunity to do so. It is up to all of us to do our part, no matter how big or little, to help in the fight against Amayastars.
I will quit there, as always I didn't proofread at all so sorry if there are some errors!
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