Hero to Zero or how I got assraped by highstakes regs (sad graphs included)
So, what has happened to me? I had pretty nice redline in January (thx to the $1k godrun mode) and then haven't play much since that for couple of reasons. So I decided to put big amount of hours and tried to play more on evenings when there is solid traffic (because it's not so great at mornings anymore), but games are tougher. I was playing similar number of tables and comparatively tough games in January too, but it's September, so it is a bit tougher than usual and I was trying to play more hours per day.
I was pretty confident that I can make it and I was finally excited and enjoyed playing hypers, but first 5-6 days I was losing money, what is not really problem in highstakes games, but also my EV was going down a lot. It wasn't really common this and last year and when I looked at my graph since start of July (just about 3k games) it looked pretty terrible. We reviewed my game with one of my backes after longer period but he didn't find any big mistakes and also thought that my thinking process is fine and allowed me to play again all the highstakes tables, but when guys who like to reg as 6th regs comes, I should stop playing or play lower buy-ins. I made big research and tried to spot some possible leaks and come back at tables, but the very first day I had the worst day ever in terms of profit, but EV aswell. It was pretty frustrating for me (and my ego obv) so I tried to play more in day-time, added also 6m turbos that should be less variance and easier, played significantly easier games overall, but still same.
Now I am in a really tough spot, because I am in big make-up (I never was in such a big one), backers told me to not play higher than $100 games until they review my game (what is really the best option for them), but I lost confidence and have a lot of different feelings and questions in my had like "What am I going to do now?", "Am I new Mossos?", "Whas that just sick hotrun and I am in fact losing player?", "Is it possible to forget to play poker?"etc.
My haters will say that I finally hit real run and that I was just in a godrun mode all the time and I can't say otherwise. But obviously I wanted to find the reason why am I losing now, so I can fix it and start making money again. But the results of this "research" are really weird, this is my year to date graph (less than $20 games are filtered because they have no sense):
Besides the losing redline I am barely making any money this year so far and it's October. So you would probably say "masuronike tried stupid challenge, started playing reginfested games with no edge and got assraped" and I again can't say otherwise. But that would mean that I am losing the most at the $300+ games, because that's where I played the toughest games definitely. And why my redline was going up at the start of year where I was also playing similar tough games and EV was also going down a lot at summer where we can't talk about reginfested games. Here is graph from 300+ games (and no, I don't have the worst redline at the $1ks):
So if the reason of this "downswing" (read assrape) is that the $300+ regs are just better than me and that I am not beating $300+ games anymore, then it means that my graph from $200 stakes should be better and that I should just stick to the $200 and less games and work on my game until I move up again. Yes, I should definitely work on my game, but this terrible and disgusting looking graph ladies and gentlemen is from $200 games this year:
Yes, I am down about $20k post rakeback in 4k games and not many buy-ins below EV. Holy shit. What does that mean? Am I not beating even $200s? Is this my real skill and I was just running hot and in reality I am losing money this way? Yes, pretty confusing for me. Again I tried to find some reason for this, but I just can't find any. A lot of you can think that I am maybe playing $200s the other way than other stakes, but when I was comparing stats they looks same. Also my graph from $30-$100 stakes with even smaller sample should looks like this, but no, I am somehow winning in EV there:
If you look at year-to-date graph again you can see that I am losing a lot (also losing a ton in EV) since start of July. Did I change something? When I compared my stats they also looks same (maybe just 1% difference in opening somewhere or shoving somewhere, but no real difference). So what the fuck this means? Is this just variance and card distribution? This is the only thing where I definitely know the right answer and it is no. This just can't be variance. Never.
The only logical reason of this is that I am playing in some phase of tournaments really swingy and that I was lucky and made it to important spots many times at start of year and not in last thousands of tournaments and also that I am not doing that good in hypers as I thought so hell of work in front of me. So what am I going to do now? Well, that's really good question. Decision is on my backers (thx god it's not on myself) and for now (but probably just few days) I am going to play just up to $100s until they review my game and find some leaks. But playing these stakes to get out of my make-up would be real nightmare so I am ready to work hard to get out of this shitty situation. It's end of the year so my goal is definitely not to play some tough games on evening again, but would be awesome if I can again play in day-time all stakes up to $1ks soon. Would be great to see some toughts from the TiltBook community and also words of satisfaction from my haters.
BTW I really think I suck in all of the things I am doing at the moment (TiltBook too unfortunately) and this sums up my situation pretty well imo:
- 23285 users
- 32 supernova Elites
- And players who actually win pre-rakeback
- They all share their poker lives on TiltBook