PokerStars will be launching first Casino Game this month - Spin & Go
PokerStars is going to introduce Spin & Go tournaments - 3max sng tournaments with 500 starting stack (25bbs) and 3 minute levels where winner takes "all". Nothing ridiculous so far, right? Everything would be ok if winner will win 3x buy-in. But at start of every sng we will see this window and software randomly choose how many times will be prizepool multiplied (2x-1000x):
The probabilities of each multipliers are also ridiculous to me: there is 75% chance winner will take just 2 buy-ins back, 15% there will be 4 buy-ins for the winner and you have chance to win up to 1000x buy-in (it will happen just in 4 sngs per 100k played and even if you hit that lucky one you have to win it). These SNGs are already in PS.es/.it/.fr software and it ruined 6max hypers traffic as it is so attractive for fishies and they started to play them.
It should be fishy as hell and one would say it can be worth playing, but here are probabilities hitting each multiplier:
There will be just 104 tournaments in every 100k sample (statistically obv) with 25+ multiplier, but because 100k is really big sample even for sick grinders, let's calculate with 10k SNGs sample, what also can take few months to play for average grinder. There will be just 10 of 25+ multipliers in every 10k SNGs. What if I am not lucky enough and do not hit these 10 or I hit them and run really bad and do not win any of them?
Let's say you will play 10k $1 Spin & Go SNGs and you are crusher and have 10% ROI without rake and 36,6% ITM/wins in average and running exactly at EV. You will hit 7,580 2x multipliers and win $5,548, 1495 4x multipliers and win $2,188, 824 6x multipliers and win $1,809 and 101 10x multipliers and win $370 = $9,915. So you are not even breakeven and now fun starts. We did not calculate with rake that should be higher than on regular 6max HTs (on PokerStars.es there is 7% rake on Spin & Gos and less than 5% on regular HTs with €10 buy-in). So let's say you will have just 5% rake (I think it will be much higher) and pay $10,500 and win $9,915 so you are down sweet 585 buy-ins in 10k games.
We are still calculating with crushing fishies with 10% ROI without rake, but this will be very hard as they are going to cut our edge by not adding antes and ICM (winner takes all), what help us to crush them in regular HTs. So even if we calculate with 10% post rake ROI, we are still not in profit in 10k games without hitting 25+ multiplier and win it. So in 100k sample it will be all about how many times you will hit 25+ multiplier (there should be 104 of them) and how many of them you will win. Just another example for cash game players, imagine you will win just half of buy-in in 75% of situations when you are allin for full stack with chance to win mirrions one time. How does it sound? Pure gamble/casino game to me!
For me as regular player at $100+ stakes it shouldn't be that bad as there should be just $1 to $30 stakes at start and fishies who plays my stakes are probably not going to play these (some of them will be definitely, especially from $100s), but some who hit 1k multiplier in lowstakes can jump in HS games and lose it all. Also it should not ruin traffic at lowstakes, because there is way more players on .com site than on .es/.fr/.it but regulars at lowstakes will have DEFINITELY lower ROI.
This is why I really hate this from PokerStars as it was the only room that allways took care of players and poker as a game. We are still fighting vs all people who think poker is gambling, but PS is going to make just another casino game from poker (like every single poker room on the market). We want to legalize poker, we think all guys from government are bastards because they think poker is gambling, but we are going to play Spin & Go lottery game (I am not!) and support PokerStars with this sick idea. I would be so happy if they have that Jackpot SNGs just on FullTilt and make another casino from poker room (like all other former poker rooms), spam PS players that they can gamble on Full Tilt and leave PS as the only one poker room out there!
If you will play these Spin & Gos, you will support them with their idea and it's just matter of time when we will have blackjack and roullette listed in SNG filter.
We are going to run petition against these tournaments soon, join TiltBook here www.tiltbook.com for more details!
Every share is appreciated and can help us to stop this madness!
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