Spin and go's are here for one year, are they really pure gamble or I was wrong?
Well, I didn't expect it will be so fishy that you can beat it by 5 or even 10% pre-rakeback. My calculations were ok, you really can't make solid money pre-rakeback if you don't hit more than 25x prizepool with about 36% evITM, while not running above EV, at 10k sample you earn about $1,3k pre-rakeback with these conditions. What I was not taking into account was rakeback, because you can make some solid money through rakeback. With bigger buy-ins there is a chance to make SNE, but those who are going for SNE, or at least for some bigger milestone, mostly plays a lot of tables or reginfested games and barely make money pre-rakeback (I allways talk about EV, obv you are up pre-rakeback if you hit biggest multiplier and win).
Another thing I was not taking into account is the fact, that you really can be crushing games with more than 36% evITM. Last year when regs were still scared about jumping into spins, there were few guys who were looking just at cEV and they found out games are incredibly soft and that it is not that tough to achieve such a big evITM. Then bighusla made challenge, where he proved he could win at 8% (about 70 chips per game and 37,5% evITM I think at $30s) and a lot of players switched to spins. They became more reginfested, but also someone bring Spinwizz on the market what allowed regs register one spin at time, so there were minimum games with 2 or 3 regs, most of the games with 2 fish. It was something that I had also no idea that can be done and it had big impact on winrate of players imo.
So did I change my opinion on Spins and this blog is something like excuse for me, because I am going to switch to them aswell? No :) I still don't like it, not gonna play them in near future (as long as I can still play 6m hypers), because of the facts I am going to share with you, but I agree (and give you proof) that Spins are beatable and if you are really really good (just small % of all regs are really really good) you can make shitloads of money. There is still such a big variance and with news from Amaya, company that is doing exact opposite from what I recommended, it looks like they don't like regs at all and added 12000x multiplier to increase variance and we are still waiting for information about rakeback cut in next days.
So I am going to share few facts with you. There is website that is illegal, which datamine all hand histories and is something like sharkscope, but with much detailed stats and also option to buy hand histories from Spins. If you pay some subscription, you can see results of all players who ever played Spins since middle of May of this year (when they started to track Spins). And I purchased subscription and gonna share few graphs, facts and interesting things from that. First thing is, how beatable they are? There are few regs, who are able to beat $60/$100 stakes at 5-6% roi pre-rakeback (above 50 chips per game and 37% evITM ) what means they are able to win pre-rakeback even if they never hit prizepool bigger than 25x. Awesome, that was one of the main things that I was against, the fact that you can't win if you never hit big prizepool is a myth. But how graphs of these regs look like? I am gonna post 3 random graphs from players with at least $60 avg buy-in, 10kgames and at least 50 chips per game = 5+% ev. Obviously without nicknames or any other info, also not gonna share single graph from TB users who are active here.
First one is awesome, above $50k EV and profit, not big variance, guy is also probably going for SNE. 2x 100x prizepool won
Second one also great, less games, but still about 40k ev and profit, again no big variance, this guy probably not going for SNE. No single win for more than 25x!
Third one again with no bigger than 25x hit, also probably not going for SNE, this time something below EV, but nothing horrible.
Two of them had a bit less than 10k sample, but it's hard to find players with these conditions. There are just 4 players total with those stats, they have lower EV, or ABI or not enough games. So those were graphs from the very best players there. Obv there are guys with lower ABI who have even bigger ev, up to 9% with some good sample, anyway graphs with more than 5% ev has no huge variance mostly. But this is no love story, so let's look at some players with lower winrate, those who are recognized as std reg. Let's look at some graphs from some random 3 players with 30-40 chips per game with some solid sample, for example at least 20k games. BTW there are just 24 players who have played more than 20k games since 12th May at $15+ level.
First one was a bit lucky, won 2/3 200x multiplier and 2/8 100x. Without them he would not make much pre-rakeback, but he is going for SNE so he is probably going to end up in solid profit at the end of year.
Next one is no big romance, still down pre-rakeback with 34 chipEV even though he won 1x 100x and 1x 200x. With SNE still solid amount in cashier.
Let's look at someone who is not going for SNE, because number of players doing so are not that big. This one is playing mostly at $15s with 41 chips per game, after 23k games is slightly winning, but with supernova rakeback he has some cash to put on titties.
As you could see, unless you are going for SNE or some big milestone, playing with lower winrate as 50 chips per game is dependent a lot on high multipliers or rakeback. Let's look now on last 3 graphs, players who are doing suicide and playing with just about 30 chips per game while not going for SNE.
Playing Spins with less than 30 chips mean you are around breakeven pre-rakeback, but in reality you are losing without hitting big multiplier. This time 1x 100 and 1x 200 multiplier won.
Again a bit less than 36% evITM and chipEV 35 chips per game (hard to find those with less than 30 who are not losing players). This time no bigger multiplier than 25x won.
Last graph have to be happyend. Most of the players are below EV obviously and when you find someone who is above, it usually looks like this. This time 32 chips per game and two times 3000x won :)
If you look at the top50 players in terms of volume (18k to 40k games), you can find just 11 players above EV, probably every one of the hit some big (or more than just one) multiplier. Why so many below EV? Because everyone (this website including) is counting bigest multipliers in EV as something they deserves. Well, I would not count at least the biggest one into EV and count it as rake, because probability of 3 times in 1 million spins is something that vast majority of players simply never play. 240x and 120x are also not common to hit, but with odds 1 in 20k games or 1 in 10k games you can count it in EV as you probably can play that volume and "deserves" to hit that prizepool at least (you have to win it then). So I would not put 5% rake into EV calculation, but 6,2% as it is more accurate with new structure. Say goodbye to the biggest one.
So you could see that playing Spin&Go's is not the worst idea and you can make solid amount, if you are beating games enough. What is enough? Well, having at least 36% evITM (what means at least 42 chips and 3% ev in games with 5% rake) is minimum if you have no big rakeback %. It means that you are not losing pre-rakeback if you are not hitting bigger prizepools than 25x. If you want to minimize your variance, then playing with at least 50 chips per game looks like a plan. It would give you 36,5% evITM and 4,5% evroi (in std style of calculating ev).
What if you are not at these numbers? Well, find some coach and pay money for skill (join stable), work on your game on your own, or accept the variance or no matter how you call it. You have also two other options. Switch format or try another poker room where you can play Spin&Go's. They have similar structure, but few differencies:
PokerStars.fr is the same as PokerStars.com, just different buy-in levels. Anyway, you will not meet there regs from outside of EU and if you never played there, first deposit bonus is also fine.
FullTilt is also fine as there is still 5% rake, but I think that rakeback after last changes is not great. Max multiplier is 2000x and top3 multipliers are paid with 75/15/10 payout structure. There are a bit more 2x/4x/6x multipliers, but you get 10x and higher more often compared to Stars.
Winning Poker Network is also good option in my opinion. They are taking 6% from prizepool, but just 4,5% is classic rake and 1,5% is going to weekly Sit & Go leaderboard and as you basically can't play any other SNG's, these spin&go regs are in first positions and making solid rakeback if you add First deposit bonus, reloads and copy/past program of PokerStars. Great addition is that you can play vs players from USA, in general most of your opponents will be from this country. Network is open to EU citizens aswell. Also the fact of deal possible in higher multipliers is what I wanted from Amaya.
Anything else is just waste of time in my opinion, PKR has still low rake 5,83%, but games are probably slower, while structure has just 2minute blind levels, also I am not sure if they have 2D version or just 3D. Winamax has 7% rake (if you don't count 10000x and 1000x multipliers it's 10%) and iPoker has 7,13% rake (without biggest one 1000x it's 8,8%).
What is the conclusion?
I wanted to write blog about Spins for longer time, because some things has changed. I wanted to say and give you proof that they are beatable and we all know Amaya is not going to help us (regs) to play them. They are going to do otherwise, so we have to adjust. I just wanted to say that I think it's even +ev for some players to switch there, but also explain for who it is not +ev (or at least my thoughts) and give some options. Also informations about how players run in real world looked too interesting to not post it. I honestly wish you all the best of luck!
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