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Spin Numbers Revisited!

 photo Puyan: I blog at http://thep-log.blogspot.co.uk/ I tweet at https://twitter.com/TheRealP_YAN
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Lets analyse the multiplier distributions again! How fun! :D

In this post a month ago, I looked at the numbers for my multipliers to compare how accurate they were to Pokerstars suggested percentages. These numbers were tracked by myself manually, noting down everytime I had a 10x + multiplier. This is quite easy, as they are pretty rare and therefore memorable.

However, upon some scouting around I managed to find this program which can look through your hand histories and tell you what multipliers you got. So this time, we can include all the multipliers that are below 10x!

Note that this doesn't really give out any substantially useful information, but it does give an idea of the kind of variance you could get multiplier-wise in a good sample...

What is kinda cool about this program is that it gives you a +/- of what is expected within the program itself... apart from the overall summary for some weird reason.

 
We can see here that in 5k gives in the $7 stakes, I had more 4x multipliers and less 2x ones. This might sound good but looking down I was due eight 10x's and two 25x's which is actually huge. We could theoretically say that we should be winning 1/3 of those so that could have been an extra (three 10x's and lets be generous and say one 25x) 55 buy ins of winnings missed out on!
 
 
The $15s stakes should in theory show a more balanced out spread of multipliers as there is 3 times the sample. 
 
Here we see that I'm very high on 4x's, but very low on 6x's. The 10x's and 25x's seem to be right on the dot, and I have 4 times the 120x and 240x then what is expected! Unfortunately I didn't take advantage of them winning only 1 of the 5 I've had. So 6th one should be a guarantee if its "no skill"? :D [If no skill then we should win 1/3 of the time)
 
 
 
Combining the overall numbers using my great paint skills it is quite interesting.
 
I seem to have a lot more 4x's then expected, but this is balanced out by the 6x's I'm not getting. The 10x's+ numbers are not huge, and I'm also running better then no skill in those games!
 
 
In Context...


One thing that must be realised is that these numbers in context is not a huge difference. Even 110 games out of the total 22,205 games is only 0.5%, so in the bigger picture the difference is not as big as it seems.

Upon looking at the numbers given, and my results this is what I have come up with.


The biggest difference here is a 0.2% blip. This means that from a 22k sample of hands, the numbers seem relatively accurate. I actually have been running good for my top 3 multipliers, getting way more then I should! But like London buses, wait for one and three come at once. All my top 3 multipliers has come in the last 4 months!

Comparing the numbers here and the ones above I also question this program's +/-'s. I have a suspicion that this program was developed before Pokerstars bumped down the odds from 300k to a million. If that's the case then almost all of the analysis I did above isn't valid at all! Trolled you! xD

In a few weeks the new Hearthstone expansion is coming out, I'm pretty excited about it. It will be an adventure expansion which means you play vs the computer where each boss is unique in a certain way. After defeating these bosses, you will unlock new cards that you can add into your deck and use them against other players in ranked play. New cards mean that the game stays fresh and interesting!



Hope y'all run good at the tables, til next time have a great week!

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