Loading...

Errors and Game Selection

 photo standard backing: Standard Backing provides poker players with a bankroll, expertise, and world-class individual coaching to crush the games.
 photo
2 types of errors that are very relevant to game selection.

Cross-posted from our blog.


In statistics there are 2 type of errors
.  A type I error is a false positive (believing something is true when it’s false), whereas a type II error is a false negative (believing something is false when it’s true).  Depending on what kind of error you want to make it’ll influence how you approach and make decisions.

Specifically, these 2 types of errors are very relevant to game selection.  When you’re deciding whether to add in a tournament to your schedule the most* basic question you’re asking is “Am I +EV in this game”.  The null hypothesis, or the base assumption, is that you’re -EV.  Meaning you need evidence that you’re +EV to disprove the base assumption.

If you misinterpret the evidence and think that you’re +EV in a tournament when you’re -EV then you’ve made a Type I error.  Meaning you’ll play a MTT where you’re -EV.

If you misinterpret the evidence and think that you’re -EV in a tournament when you’re +EV then you’ve made a Type II error.  Meaning you’re skipping a MTT in which you’re +EV.

Generally, if you’re conservative in your game selection you should be trying to minimize your Type I errors and setting a higher bar to prove that you’re +EV in a tournament.

Whereas, if you’re aggressive in your game selection you should look to minimize your Type II errors, and setting a lower standard of proof that you’re +EV in a tournament.

There’s no right answer when considering which way to go.  Committing the Type I error will put you into -EV games and drastically increase your variance and lower your ROI, committing the Type II error will leave money on the table.

You decide.

 

* Ignoring other considerations (e.g. bankroll management and variance).
 
 
  • 23299 users
  • 32 supernova Elites
  • And players who actually win pre-rakeback
  • They all share their poker lives on TiltBook
Make A +EV Decision Now
Contact: support@tiltbook.com
0