A little bit about variance, from my perspective
Hi TiltBookers! In this blog I am going to write a little bit about variance, and how I try to deal with it myself. Anything written in this blog will be based on my opinion, and experiences.
I think the first and most relevant thing is knowing that even if you are favourite to win, you are inevitably going to lose a % of the time. If you get it in with 80% chance to win, you still lose 1/5 times. As variance has no short term memory, sometimes you will lose 3 in a row, it really does suck at the time, but the more times you encounter the situation, the closer you will run to expected value or ev.
It is easy for me to write this now, just coming off a win, but something I said not long before I won the women's Sunday, is what made things a bit clearer for me. Up until that point in the day had won less than 40% of my KK's at showdown. I said to a friend on skype "If I manage to win all my flips in this tourny will make up for all the JJ-AA I lost today"
In a way that is exactly right, in MTT's you have to win a lot of flips and 80/20s, 70/30s. For the amount of players and hands you have to get through to win an MTT, the odds are not in your favour in any one single tournament. The way to deal with it is by playing more games, playing well in those games. Eventually you will run at EV in one tournament, or even above EV. And those hundreds of tournaments you busted with your big hands, will be made up for.
The beauty and excitement of MTT's is the big scores and plenty of players who will gladly give you their chips at the first opportunity. But between those big scores, there's the almosts... there are a lot of those, there's the times where you can play seemingly endless games without seeing ITM. The number of games and amount of $ you can lose between those big scores can be disheartening and depressing.
I am in no means the best when it comes to mindset in poker, I get angry and upset, make mistakes sometimes due to my emotion at the time. But I try to reduce my variance overall by playing "variance reducers". Basically the smaller the field, the lower the variance in general. That's coz you have less hands to get through that have to hold up. If you are an MTT player, playing a smaller game you can win consistently in, on your days when you aren't playing MTT's, will take a lot of the harshness off the MTT swings.
Another factor to consider in variance is the amount of time between blind levels, the less time the higher the variance. That is because you are seeing a lot less hands per blind level in turbo's/hypers.
Think I will wrap up here, if you have any questions or comments don't hesitate :) wish you all good luck at the tables!!
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